Home Favourites at 1.10 to 1.19: How Often Does the Away Side Win?
Big away prices against short home favourites look tempting. Across 2,675 games at this rung, the upset landed far less often than the odds suggested.
Written by Ella Yardley1X2 specialist
- −44.2%return backing the away side
- 5.9%away win priced by the odds
- 3.4%away side won
- 2,675home sides priced 1.10–1.19
- Market
- 1X2
- The question
- When the home side is priced 1.10–1.19, how often does the away side win, and does backing that upset pay?
- Sample
- Football, 38 leagues: 22 European divisions 2005/06–2025/26 and 16 leagues elsewhere 2012–2024; 210,453 matches with pre-match 1X2 prices
When a home side is priced between 1.10 and 1.19, the away price can look like a lottery ticket worth buying. I wanted to know how often that ticket actually pays, because I check this before I write up a short favourite on my daily 1X2 tips page. The question is whether the away side wins often enough to justify its price.
It does not. Across 2,675 home sides at this rung, the away side won 92 times, which is 3.4% against 5.9% priced. That gap means backing every away side returned −44.2% per bet at the major-book price. Even at the best price on the market it returned −31.7%. The charts below show where that shortfall comes from and whether any corner of the rung holds up.
Rung 1Away sides undershoot their price at every short rung
This ladder sets the priced away-win rate against the actual one for each home price band from 1.01 to 1.80. At 1.10–1.19 the actual rate of 3.4% sits well below the 5.9% priced, and the 95% range of ±0.7 points does not come close to closing that gap.
The pattern runs along the whole short end. One rung shorter, at 1.01–1.09, the away win landed 1.3% against 3.6% priced. One rung longer, at 1.20–1.29, it landed 6.4% against 8.4% across 4,494 games.
Bars show the 95% range around the actual rate.
View the data: away win against a short home side
| Priced | Actual | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01–1.09 (459 games) | 3.6% | 1.3% | ±1 |
| 1.10–1.19 (2,675 games) | 5.9% | 3.4% | ±0.7 |
| 1.20–1.29 (4,494 games) | 8.4% | 6.4% | ±0.7 |
| 1.30–1.39 (5,787 games) | 11.0% | 9.4% | ±0.8 |
| 1.40–1.49 (7,277 games) | 13.3% | 11.5% | ±0.7 |
| 1.50–1.59 (10,202 games) | 15.6% | 15.6% | ±0.7 |
| 1.60–1.69 (11,256 games) | 18.0% | 17.4% | ±0.7 |
| 1.70–1.80 (15,130 games) | 20.3% | 19.1% | ±0.6 |
What I take from this is that the market overrates the upset most heavily where the favourite is shortest. The two lines only meet around 1.50–1.59, where priced and actual are both 15.6%. Below that, the away price is consistently too short for how rarely it lands.
Rung 2No narrower band inside 1.10–1.19 rescues the away bet
I split the rung into three tighter bands to see whether the gap is concentrated anywhere. At 1.10–1.12 the away side won 2.5% of 524 games against 4.9% priced. At 1.13–1.15 it won 3.9% of 761 against 5.6%, and at 1.16–1.19 it won 3.5% of 1,390 against 6.5%.
View the data: away wins inside the 1.10–1.19 rung
| Actual away win rate by narrower home price band | |
|---|---|
| 1.10–1.12 (524) | 2.5% |
| 1.13–1.15 (761) | 3.9% |
| 1.16–1.19 (1,390) | 3.5% |
The middle band edges highest on the actual rate, but the samples are small and every band still falls short of its price. The widest gap is at 1.16–1.19, the part of the rung where the away price looks most reasonable on paper.
Rung 3Every league tier shows the same away-win shortfall
Next I wanted to know whether the effect depends on which leagues you bet. In European top flights the away side won 3.5% of 2,057 games against 5.8% priced. In European lower divisions it won 3.9% of 180 against 6.5%, and outside Europe 3.2% of 438 against 6.3%.
The gap is largest outside Europe, at −3.1 points, and that group also produced the worst return at −50.4%. The lower divisions look slightly less bad at −39.6%, but 180 games is a thin base to read much into.
| Tier | Games | Priced | Actual | Gap | Avg away price | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top flights | 2,057 | 5.8% | 3.5% | −2.3 points | 16.80 | −43.3% |
| Lower divisions | 180 | 6.5% | 3.9% | −2.6 points | 14.74 | −39.6% |
| Outside Europe | 438 | 6.3% | 3.2% | −3.1 points | 15.31 | −50.4% |
For me, this rules out the idea that the upset value sits in less-followed leagues. The overpricing shows up in every tier I measured.
Rung 4Backing the away side loses most at the shortest rungs
This chart turns the hit rates into flat-stake returns at the major-book price and the best available price. At 1.10–1.19 the away bet returned −44.2% and −31.7%. Fair odds based on how often the upset landed were 29.08, against an average quoted price of 16.42 and an average best price of 20.39.
Across all eight rungs, the major-book return ranged from −65.1% to −6.5%. At the best price it ranged from −54.3% to +4.7%, and the only positive figures came around 1.50–1.69, nowhere near this rung.
View the data: backing the away side: flat-stake return
| Major-book price | Best price | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.01–1.09 | −65.1% | −54.3% |
| 1.10–1.19 | −44.2% | −31.7% |
| 1.20–1.29 | −29.4% | −16.3% |
| 1.30–1.39 | −19.3% | −6.9% |
| 1.40–1.49 | −19.0% | −8.2% |
| 1.50–1.59 | −6.5% | +4.7% |
| 1.60–1.69 | −9.6% | +0.1% |
| 1.70–1.80 | −12.0% | −3.5% |
Away wins at this price are rare, so a handful of results can swing these returns, and the best-price figures assume you always got the top quote. Even allowing for that, an average best price of 20.39 falls a long way short of the 29.08 needed to break even here. I treat these figures as a record of past results, not as a system.
At this price
- Compare against 29.08
The upset landed often enough to justify fair odds of 29.08, while the average quoted price was 16.42. An away price in the high teens at this rung is short, not generous.
- Avoid the 1.16–1.19 trap
The top of the rung looks most tempting, but the away side won 3.5% there against 6.5% priced. That was the widest gap of the three sub-bands.
- Don't rely on league choice
Top flights, lower divisions and leagues outside Europe all fell short of their price, with returns between −50.4% and −39.6%. Picking a different tier did not fix the shortfall.
Questions bettors ask
How often does the away team beat a 1.10–1.19 home favourite?
In 2,675 games the away side won 92 times, which is 3.4% of matches. The odds had priced that outcome at 5.9%.
Does backing the underdog against a very short home favourite make money?
Not at this rung. Backing every away side returned −44.2% per bet at the major-book price and −31.7% at the best available price.
What are fair odds for an away win when the home side is 1.10–1.19?
Based on how often it actually happened, fair odds were 29.08. The average away price on offer was 16.42 and the average best price was 20.39.
I'm a 1X2 specialist who digs into form, team news, and the situational details most previews overlook before backing a match result.
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