Home Side Priced 1.20-1.29: Which Scores Stop the Short Favourite?
Across 3,436 matches, the short home favourite slipped up less often than its price implied. The upsets clustered on a handful of low scores, led by 1-1.
Written by Theodore MarshCorrect Score & match flow analyst
- +2.0%Home win return at best price
- 6.9%1-1 rate, the commonest upset score
- 20.5%Failed to win (model 24.5%)
- 3,436Home sides priced 1.20-1.29
- Market
- Correct Score
- The question
- When the home side is priced 1.20-1.29, how often does it fail to win, and which exact scores produce the upset?
- Sample
- 22 European league divisions, 2005/06 to 2025/26, 155,895 completed matches with pre-match 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices
When a home side is priced between 1.20 and 1.29, most bettors only ask whether it wins. I want to know how often it doesn't, and what the scoreboard looks like when the favourite gets stopped. This rung covers 3,436 matches across 22 European divisions, so the answers rest on a decent sample rather than a few memorable shocks.
The headline is that these favourites failed to win 20.5% of the time against 24.5% in the model, so the price slightly overstated the risk of an upset. If you use my daily correct score tips, this is the price rung where I am most cautious about chasing a draw or an away score. The rest of this guide shows which scores did the damage and whether the home win itself paid.
Rung 1Short home favourites fail less often than priced
This chart runs up the price ladder and compares the margin-free chance of a draw or away win with what happened. The draw-or-away rate climbs from 12.4% under 1.20 to 42.1% at 1.60-1.69, which is exactly the shape you would expect. What matters is the gap: at the shortest rungs the actual line sits clearly to the left of the model.
At 1.20-1.29 the shortfall is four points, outside the ±1.3 point range, and the fair odds on the favourite failing come out at 4.89. Compare that with 1.50-1.59, where the home side failed to win 37.9% of 7,221 games against 39.3% priced. The mispricing fades as the favourite gets longer.
Model = margin-free 1X2 price, so this row is the priced chance of a draw or away win.
View the data: home favourite fails to win, by home price
| Model | Actual | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.20 (2,586 matches) | 17.5% | 12.4% | ±1.3 |
| 1.20-1.29 (3,436 matches) | 24.5% | 20.5% | ±1.3 |
| 1.30-1.39 (3,932 matches) | 30.1% | 26.4% | ±1.4 |
| 1.40-1.49 (4,864 matches) | 34.6% | 31.2% | ±1.3 |
| 1.50-1.59 (7,221 matches) | 39.3% | 37.9% | ±1.1 |
| 1.60-1.69 (7,939 matches) | 43.0% | 42.1% | ±1.1 |
My reading is that the market builds in a little too much fear of the upset when a strong side is at home. Flip it round and the home win landed 79.5% of the time, fair odds 1.26, against 75.5% priced.
Rung 2The 1-1 draw is the score that stops them most
When a 1.20-1.29 home side does slip, 1-1 is the score most likely to do it, in 6.9% of games against 7.6% in the model, fair odds 14.56. That fits what I see in match flow: the favourite scores, then the underdog nicks one back from a set piece or a transition and the favourite cannot find a second.
The goalless draw is the biggest disappointment against the model, landing 3.3% of the time against 4.7%, fair odds 29.88. Nil-nil rarely survives against a side this strong. The 2-2 is the only score here that beat its model figure, coming in at 3.4% against 3.2%.
| Score | Actual | Model | Gap (pts) | Fair odds | Model odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 6.9% | 7.6% | −0.7 | 14.56 | 13.16 |
| 0-0 | 3.3% | 4.7% | −1.4 | 29.88 | 21.34 |
| 2-2 | 3.4% | 3.2% | +0.2 | 29.37 | 30.89 |
| 0-1 | 2.0% | 2.9% | −0.9 | 49.80 | 34.60 |
| 1-2 | 1.7% | 2.4% | −0.7 | 57.27 | 41.41 |
| Other draw/away | 3.1% | 3.7% | −0.6 | 32.42 | 27.02 |
The away upsets are thin. A 0-1 came in 2.0% of games, fair odds 49.80, and 1-2 in 1.7%, fair odds 57.27, both well below the model. Every other draw and away score combined made up 3.1% against 3.7%.
Rung 3The pattern holds across tiers and eras
A rung like this can be skewed by where the matches come from, so I split it by division tier and by era. In the top divisions the home side won 79.3% of 2,955 games, and in the lower divisions 80.7% of 481. That is close enough to say the tier does not change the picture much, though the lower-tier sample is small.
By era the home win rate moved from 78.0% to 82.3% and back to 78.4% in the most recent spell. In 2019/20-2025/26 away wins made up 6.2% of these games and draws 15.4%, so the draw is still doing almost all of the stopping.
View the data: home 1.20-1.29: results by tier and era
| Home win | Draw | Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top divisions (2,955) | 79.3% | 14.4% | 6.3% |
| Lower divisions (481) | 80.7% | 13.9% | 5.4% |
| 2005/06-2011/12 (1,240) | 78.0% | 16.0% | 6.0% |
| 2012/13-2018/19 (1,117) | 82.3% | 11.5% | 6.2% |
| 2019/20-2025/26 (1,079) | 78.4% | 15.4% | 6.2% |
One caution I take seriously: prices this short tend to belong to a few dominant clubs, so a single team's habits can lean on the whole rung. The model is also a yardstick built from 1X2 and goal-line prices, not a quoted correct score price, and real correct score markets carry a heavier margin.
Rung 4The home win roughly breaks even, depending on price
Backing every home side at 1.20-1.29 returned −1.2% at the main price and +2.0% at the best available price. Under 1.20 the figures were −0.3% and +2.6%. The longer rungs look worse, which mirrors the first chart: the market's caution is strongest where the favourite is shortest.
I would not treat the best-price column as an expected profit. It assumes the top price was taken on every single match, so it is an upper bound. What it does tell me is that price shopping matters more than selection at this rung.
View the data: backing the home win: flat-stake return
| Main price | Best price | |
|---|---|---|
| Under 1.20 | −0.3% | +2.6% |
| 1.20-1.29 | −1.2% | +2.0% |
| 1.30-1.39 | −1.3% | +2.2% |
| 1.40-1.49 | −1.5% | +2.4% |
| 1.50-1.59 | −4.5% | −0.8% |
| 1.60-1.69 | −4.9% | −1.0% |
At this price
- Lead with the 1-1
If you want an upset score at this price, 1-1 is the most common at 6.9%. Only back it when the quoted price is longer than the fair odds of 14.56.
- Avoid the goalless draw
The 0-0 landed 3.3% of the time against 4.7% in the model. A price shorter than fair odds of 29.88 is paying you less than history suggests.
- Shop the home price
At the main price the home win returned −1.2%, at the best price +2.0%. The edge, if any, lives in the price you take, not the pick.
Questions bettors ask
How often does a home favourite at 1.20-1.29 fail to win?
It failed to win 20.5% of the time across 3,436 matches, against 24.5% implied by the margin-free price. The fair odds on the favourite failing work out at 4.89.
What is the most common upset score when a short home favourite drops points?
1-1 is the commonest, landing in 6.9% of games against 7.6% in the model, with fair odds of 14.56. Away wins were rarer, with 0-1 at 2.0% and 1-2 at 1.7%.
Is backing home sides at 1.20-1.29 profitable?
Not reliably. Flat stakes returned −1.2% at the main price and +2.0% at the best price, and the best-price figure assumes the top quote was taken every time, so treat it as a ceiling.
Theodore Marsh — Correct Score is the market I keep returning to, mainly because the difference between a 1-0 and a 2-1 usually comes down to small tactical details most previews skip past.
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