Away Price Double the Home Price: How Often Does BTTS Land?
When the away side is priced at roughly twice the home side, BTTS lands slightly more often than the odds suggest. The away side does most of the blanking.
Written by Beatrice HollowayBTTS & goal patterns analyst
- 1.93Fair odds for BTTS Yes (1/frequency)
- 50.0%Priced by the 1X2 and goals odds
- 51.9%Both teams scored (actual)
- 12,035Away 1.85-2.15× home: matches
- Market
- BTTS
- The question
- When the away price is about twice the home price, how often do both teams score, and which side fails to score when they do not?
- Sample
- 22 European divisions, 2005/06-2025/26 seasons, 155,895 matches with 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices
You see this price all the time: home 2.00, away 4.00, a ratio somewhere between 1.85 and 2.15. I wanted to know what that market shape produces for both teams to score, and which side tends to fail when it doesn't land. I check it next to my daily BTTS predictions page, because the 1X2 price is visible long before team news.
The headline answer is that across 12,035 matches in 22 European divisions, both teams scored in 51.9% (±0.9). The 1X2 and goals odds priced it at 50.0%, so fair odds for BTTS Yes come out at 1.93 against 2.00 from the prices. That reads as close to the price with a mild lean towards Yes, rather than anything dramatic.
Rung 1BTTS barely moves as the away price stretches
The ladder runs from games where the away price is 1.25-1.50× the home price up to 3.00-4.00×. The actual BTTS rate drifts gently from 52.5% at the short end to 50.7% at the long end. The priced rate falls in step, from 51.1% to 48.9%. Every rung finishes above its price by a similar margin: +1.4 points at the shortest, +1.9 points at double the home price and +1.8 points at the widest.
What surprised me is how flat this is. You'd expect a bigger favourite to mean many more clean sheets, but even at 3.00-4.00× the away side still finds a way often enough to keep BTTS near half of all games.
View the data: btts by away price ÷ home price
| Priced (model) | Actual | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.25-1.50× (16,504 games) | 51.1% | 52.5% | ±0.8 |
| 1.50-1.85× (18,118 games) | 50.6% | 52.1% | ±0.7 |
| 1.85-2.15× (12,035 games) | 50.0% | 51.9% | ±0.9 |
| 2.15-2.50× (9,613 games) | 49.7% | 51.4% | ±1 |
| 2.50-3.00× (10,568 games) | 49.6% | 51.5% | ±1 |
| 3.00-4.00× (11,028 games) | 48.9% | 50.7% | ±0.9 |
The main caveat sits here. The pricing model treats home and away goals as independent, and across all 155,895 games it runs low (51.7% actual against 50.3% priced). A gap of +1.9 points at this rung is only a little bigger than that baseline, so I read the double-price rung as fairly priced with a slight tilt, not as an opening.
Rung 2The away side carries most of the blanking risk
When BTTS fails at 1.85-2.15×, it is mostly the away side drawing a blank. Only the away side failed to score in 27.6% of games and only the home side in 12.0%, with 0-0 at 8.5%. Taken together, the away side failed to score in 36.1% of games and the home side in 20.5%.
The neighbouring rungs show the trend clearly. As the gap widens from 1.50-1.85× to 2.15-2.50×, away-only blanks climb from 25.1% to 29.2% while home-only blanks fall from 13.7% to 10.8%. The 0-0 share barely shifts.
View the data: who fails to score as the gap widens
| Both scored | Only home blanked | Only away blanked | 0-0 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50-1.85× | 52.1% | 13.7% | 25.1% | 9.1% |
| 1.85-2.15× | 51.9% | 12.0% | 27.6% | 8.5% |
| 2.15-2.50× | 51.4% | 10.8% | 29.2% | 8.6% |
In practice, backing BTTS No at this price mostly means betting that the away side won't score. The home side keeping its own sheet clean matters less. That is exactly the question I like asking: does this away team create anything, or does it just turn up?
Rung 3The half-time score splits BTTS into very different games
At double the home price, both teams had already scored by half-time in 18.3% of games, so those are left out. In the rest, the half-time state matters a great deal. From 0-0 at the break (3,925 games), both teams went on to score in only 24.5%. With the home side ahead and the away side on 0 (3,805 games), it was 46.5%.
Games where both had already scored by half-time (18.3% of the rung) are left out: BTTS was already settled.
View the data: away at double the home price: btts by half-time
| Share of games that ended with both teams scoring | |
|---|---|
| 0-0 at half-time | 24.5% |
| Home ahead, away on 0 | 46.5% |
| Away ahead, home on 0 | 62.4% |
The row I keep coming back to is the away side ahead with the home side on 0 (2,108 games). Both teams went on to score in 62.4% of those. A favourite chasing the game usually finds a goal. The away side blanking at half-time is far harder to recover from.
Rung 4Recent seasons run a little hotter than the early ones
Split into three-season blocks, the rung moves around more than the full sample suggests. In 05/06-07/08, both teams scored in 50.0% of 1,767 games against 49.2% priced. In 23/24-25/26, it was 53.9% of 1,539 games against 51.6% priced. The widest gap came in 17/18-19/20, at 53.3% actual against 49.9% priced.
View the data: away at double the home price: btts by era
| Actual | Priced (model) | |
|---|---|---|
| 05/06-07/08 | 50.0% | 49.2% |
| 08/09-10/11 | 51.0% | 49.4% |
| 11/12-13/14 | 51.5% | 50.8% |
| 14/15-16/17 | 52.1% | 49.3% |
| 17/18-19/20 | 53.3% | 49.9% |
| 20/21-22/23 | 51.7% | 50.2% |
| 23/24-25/26 | 53.9% | 51.6% |
The priced line has crept up too, so the market has partly caught up with higher-scoring seasons. Each block is a much smaller sample than the full rung, though. I treat the era chart as context, not something to build a bet on.
At this price
- Treat 1.93 as your line
Fair odds for BTTS Yes at this rung are 1.93 against 2.00 from the prices. A Yes price below 1.93 means paying more than the historical frequency justifies.
- Judge the away attack first
The away side failed to score in 36.1% of these games and the home side in 20.5%. Your BTTS view should rest mainly on whether the away team creates chances.
- Re-check at half-time
From 0-0 at the break, BTTS landed in only 24.5%. With the away side ahead and the home side on 0, it landed in 62.4%, so the pre-match read can change sharply by the interval.
Questions bettors ask
How often do both teams score when the away team is twice the home team's price?
Across 12,035 European matches with the away price 1.85-2.15 times the home price, both teams scored in 51.9%. The odds had priced it at 50.0%.
What are fair odds for BTTS Yes when the away side is double the home price?
Based on the 51.9% hit rate, fair odds are 1.93, against 2.00 implied by the 1X2 and goals prices. That is a small gap, and the pricing model itself runs slightly low on BTTS overall.
If it's 0-0 at half-time, how likely is BTTS at this price?
From 0-0 at half-time, both teams went on to score in 24.5% of 3,925 games. If the away side led and the home side had not scored, it rose to 62.4%.
Beatrice Holloway here. BTTS is my main beat — most of my time goes on figuring out which fixtures actually produce goals on both sides, and which ones just look like they will.
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