Home Sides Priced 1.40 to 1.49: How Often Does It End in a Draw?
Across 7,277 games with the home side at 1.40–1.49, the draw came in slightly less often than the odds said, and backing it lost money even at the best price.
Written by Ella Yardley1X2 specialist
- 4.87fair draw odds at this rung
- 21.6%draw priced by the odds
- 20.5%ended in a draw
- 7,277home sides priced 1.40–1.49
- Market
- 1X2
- The question
- When the home side is priced 1.40–1.49, how often does the game finish level, and is the draw priced right?
- Sample
- Football, 38 leagues: 22 European divisions 2005/06–2025/26 and 16 leagues elsewhere 2012–2024; 210,453 matches with pre-match 1X2 prices
When a home side is priced 1.40–1.49, the draw is the outcome most bettors look at next. The favourite feels too short to back, so the stalemate starts to look like value. I wanted to know whether that instinct holds up, so I pulled every game at this rung from 210,453 matches across 38 leagues.
The short answer: 1,494 of 7,277 games ended level, a draw rate of 20.5% against 21.6% priced. That gives fair draw odds of 4.87, above the average draw price of 4.36, so the draw has been slightly too short here. This study sits alongside my 1X2 bet tips page, where I check every short home price against rungs like this before I write anything up.
Rung 1Draws undershoot their price at almost every short rung
This chart sets the priced draw rate against the actual one for each home price band from 1.01 up to 1.80. At 1.40–1.49 the gap is 1.1 points in the market's favour, and the 95% range of ±0.9 points means the shortfall is not just noise. It is also part of a pattern: draws were rarer than priced at every home rung from 1.01 to 1.59.
Bars show the 95% range around the actual rate.
View the data: draw rate by home favourite price
| Priced | Actual | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01–1.09 (459 games) | 8.2% | 5.2% | ±2 |
| 1.10–1.19 (2,675 games) | 12.6% | 10.1% | ±1.1 |
| 1.20–1.29 (4,494 games) | 16.3% | 14.2% | ±1 |
| 1.30–1.39 (5,787 games) | 19.2% | 17.5% | ±1 |
| 1.40–1.49 (7,277 games) | 21.6% | 20.5% | ±0.9 |
| 1.50–1.59 (10,202 games) | 23.7% | 22.0% | ±0.8 |
| 1.60–1.69 (11,256 games) | 25.0% | 25.1% | ±0.8 |
| 1.70–1.80 (15,130 games) | 26.3% | 25.5% | ±0.7 |
The neighbours tell the same story. At 1.30–1.39 the draw landed 17.5% against 19.2% priced, and at 1.50–1.59 it landed 22.0% against 23.7%. Only around 1.60–1.69 do the two lines roughly meet, and by 1.70–1.80 the draw is back under its price at 25.5% against 26.3%. My read is that the market leans slightly towards the stalemate whenever a home favourite is short.
Rung 2Backing the draw lost money at every home rung
A small gap in probability turns into a real cost once the margin is added. Backing the draw in every 1.40–1.49 home game returned −10.7% at the major-book price. Shopping for the best price cut that to −3.7%, which is still a loss.
Across the eight rungs, returns ran from −39.8% to −6.2% at the major-book price and from −28.1% to −0.3% at the best price. Not a single bar crosses into profit.
View the data: backing the draw: flat-stake return
| Major-book price | Best price | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.01–1.09 | −39.8% | −28.1% |
| 1.10–1.19 | −25.3% | −14.7% |
| 1.20–1.29 | −18.1% | −9.8% |
| 1.30–1.39 | −14.9% | −7.2% |
| 1.40–1.49 | −10.7% | −3.7% |
| 1.50–1.59 | −13.3% | −6.9% |
| 1.60–1.69 | −6.2% | −0.3% |
| 1.70–1.80 | −9.4% | −4.4% |
The best-price figures are a ceiling, not something to expect. They assume you always got the single highest quote in the market, and few bettors manage that bet after bet. These are records of what happened in the past at each price, not a system, and they say nothing certain about the next match. The rung also does not separate games by expected goals, which shapes draw rates on its own.
Rung 3Lower divisions show the widest draw shortfall
Splitting the rung by competition shows how these games actually finish. In European top flights the home side won 68.7%, the draw landed 20.4% against 21.4% priced, and the away side won 10.9%. European lower divisions were similar on home wins at 69.1%, but the draw landed only 19.7% against 21.8% priced.
View the data: home 1.40–1.49: how games end by tier
| Home win | Draw | Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top flights | 68.7% | 20.4% | 10.9% |
| Lower divisions | 69.1% | 19.7% | 11.2% |
| Outside Europe | 66.2% | 21.3% | 12.5% |
Leagues outside Europe were the exception. The home side won less often at 66.2%, the away side more often at 12.5%, and the draw came in at 21.3% against 21.6% priced, close to its price. If I'm looking at a short home favourite in a lower European division, the draw is the outcome I trust least.
Rung 4The draw rate at this rung held steady
The last question is whether this is an old quirk the market has since corrected. In 2005–2011 the draw landed 19.8% of 1,593 games against 22.5% priced, the widest gap of the three spans. In 2012–2018 it landed 21.1% against 21.6% priced, and in 2019–2025 it landed 20.3% against 21.0%.
View the data: home 1.40–1.49: draw rate by era
| Actual draw rate in three seven-season spans | |
|---|---|
| 2005–2011 (1,593) | 19.8% |
| 2012–2018 (2,901) | 21.1% |
| 2019–2025 (2,783) | 20.3% |
The actual draw rate has barely moved; what has changed is the price. The odds have crept closer to reality, so the gap is narrower now than in the early years, but it has not reversed. I treat this as a market that has sharpened without fully closing the shortfall.
At this price
- Price the draw at 4.87
At this rung the draw landed 20.5% of the time, which makes 4.87 the fair price. The average draw price was 4.36, so a typical quote sits well below fair.
- Shop before any draw bet
The average best draw price of 4.71 cut the loss from −10.7% to −3.7%. Taking the first price you see costs you on every bet.
- Check the division first
European lower divisions showed the widest gap, with the draw landing 19.7% against 21.8% priced. Outside Europe the draw at 21.3% was close to its 21.6% price.
Questions bettors ask
How often does a home favourite at 1.40–1.49 draw?
Across 7,277 games, 1,494 ended level, a draw rate of 20.5%. The odds implied 21.6%, so draws came in slightly less often than priced.
What are fair draw odds when the home side is around 1.45?
Based on the actual draw rate at the 1.40–1.49 rung, fair draw odds were 4.87. The average draw price on offer was 4.36, below that fair line.
Is backing the draw against short home favourites profitable?
Not on these records. Backing the draw in every 1.40–1.49 home game returned −10.7% at the major-book price and −3.7% at the best price, and every rung from 1.01 to 1.80 showed a loss.
I'm a 1X2 specialist who digs into form, team news, and the situational details most previews overlook before backing a match result.
View profile →
