Home Side Priced 1.50-1.59: How Often Does It Win 2-1?
A home favourite priced 1.50-1.59 wins 2-1 slightly more often than its prices imply, but 1-0 and 2-0 still land more often across 7,221 matches.
Written by Theodore MarshCorrect Score & match flow analyst
- 12.4%1-0 rate (fair odds 8.09)
- 9.32Fair odds for 2-1
- 10.7%2-1 rate (model 9.6%)
- 7,221Home sides priced 1.50-1.59
- Market
- Correct Score
- The question
- When the home side is priced 1.50-1.59, how often does it win 2-1, how does that compare with the model, and how do 1-0 and 2-0 stack up?
- Sample
- 22 European league divisions, 2005/06 to 2025/26, 155,895 completed matches with pre-match 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices
A home side priced 1.50-1.59 is a clear favourite. The market expects it to win, so the useful question for a correct score bettor is how it wins. I took every match in that price band from 22 European divisions between 2005/06 and 2025/26, 7,221 games in all, and counted the scorelines against what the 1X2 and goal-line prices implied.
The headline is 2-1 landed 10.7% of the time against a model figure of 9.6%, which gives fair odds of 9.32. That is a small edge over the yardstick, but 1-0 at 12.4% and 2-0 at 11.9% were both more common. If you want the match-by-match view, my daily correct score tips page applies this kind of reading to each day's games. Here I want the price itself under the microscope.
Rung 12-1 runs above the model while 4+ falls short
This chart sets the model rate for each home-win score beside what happened. The model is built from margin-free 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices, so it tells you what the market's own numbers imply for each score. Then the chart puts reality next to it.
2-1 sits above its model mark of 9.6% at 10.7%, and 2-0 also edges over at 11.9% against 11.2%. 1-0 at 12.4% is within the model's 95% range of 12.0%. 3-0 matched exactly at 7.0%, and 3-1 came in slightly under at 5.8%. The one clear shortfall is home wins with four or more goals, at 11.3% against 12.2% in the model.
View the data: home win scores at 1.50-1.59
| Model | Actual | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-0 (fair 8.09) | 12.0% | 12.4% | ±0.8 |
| 2-0 (fair 8.42) | 11.2% | 11.9% | ±0.7 |
| 2-1 (fair 9.32) | 9.6% | 10.7% | ±0.7 |
| 3-0 (fair 14.21) | 7.0% | 7.0% | ±0.6 |
| 3-1 (fair 17.15) | 6.0% | 5.8% | ±0.5 |
| 3-2 (fair 34.22) | 2.6% | 2.9% | ±0.4 |
| 4+ goals for home (fair 8.86) | 12.2% | 11.3% | ±0.7 |
What I take from this is that the market slightly overrates the rout at this price and slightly underrates the scrappier one-goal or two-goal win. The gaps are small, ±0.7 points on the 2-1 figure, so read them as tilts, not as a system. A quoted correct score price also carries a much heavier margin than this model, so 9.32 is a floor to compare against, not a target you will often be offered.
Rung 22-0 fades down the ladder while 1-0 stays flat
Here the three scores are tracked across home prices from 1.30 to 2.39. 1-0 barely moves, staying between 11.3% and 12.7% across the whole range. It is the steady score that turns up at almost any home price.
2-0 is the one that responds to price. It falls from 12.1% at 1.30-1.39 to 7.1% at 2.20-2.39, because a clean two-goal margin needs a dominant favourite. 2-1 slides more gently, from 11.0% to 8.9%.
View the data: 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 across the home price ladder
| 1-0 | 2-0 | 2-1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.30-1.39 | 12.2% | 12.1% | 11.0% |
| 1.40-1.49 | 12.7% | 11.8% | 10.8% |
| 1.50-1.59 | 12.4% | 11.9% | 10.7% |
| 1.60-1.69 | 12.0% | 10.6% | 11.2% |
| 1.70-1.79 | 12.4% | 10.7% | 10.6% |
| 1.80-1.99 | 12.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% |
| 2.00-2.19 | 11.7% | 8.0% | 9.4% |
| 2.20-2.39 | 11.3% | 7.1% | 8.9% |
The 1.50-1.59 rung sits at the point where all three scores are still bunched together. Go much shorter and 2-0 starts to take over. Go longer and 2-0 drops away, leaving 1-0 and 2-1 as the main home-win scores.
Rung 3Tier barely matters but recent seasons trimmed 2-0
The table splits the 1.50-1.59 rung by division tier and by era. Tier makes little difference. Top divisions showed 1-0 at 12.2% across 3,526 games and lower divisions 12.5% across 3,695, with 2-0 identical at 11.9% in both.
Era tells a slightly different story. In 2005/06-2011/12 the three scores ran at 13.0%, 12.4% and 10.9%. In 2019/20-2025/26 2-0 has fallen to 10.7% and 2-1 to 10.0%, while 1-0 has held at 12.5%. The middle block was the only spell where 2-0 topped the list, at 12.3%.
| Group | Matches | 1-0 | 2-0 | 2-1 | Top score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top divisions | 3,526 | 12.2% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 1-0 |
| Lower divisions | 3,695 | 12.5% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 1-0 |
| 2005/06-2011/12 | 2,661 | 13.0% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 1-0 |
| 2012/13-2018/19 | 2,481 | 11.6% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 2-0 |
| 2019/20-2025/26 | 2,079 | 12.5% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 1-0 |
Each era holds only a few thousand games, so I would not overreact to any single row. Still, the recent block points away from 2-0 and towards 1-0 as the score to respect at this price.
Rung 4Half-time state reshapes which home win arrives
This heatmap shows how the final score depended on the half-time position. These rows describe how games unfolded, so they are not pre-match information, but they explain where each scoreline comes from. With the home side ahead at the break, 3,212 games, 2-0 was the standout at 18.7%.
Level at half-time, 2,889 games, the picture flips: 1-0 finished 17.9% of the time and 2-0 only 8.9%. Even from behind at the break, 1,120 games, the home side still won 2-1 in 9.6% of matches.
View the data: final 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 by half-time state
| 1-0 | 2-0 | 2-1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home ahead at HT (3,212) | 11.7% | 18.7% | 11.1% |
| Level at HT (2,889) | 17.9% | 8.9% | 10.7% |
| Away ahead at HT (1,120) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.6% |
That last row is why 2-1 holds its value at this price. It is the one score of the three that can arrive from any half-time position, including a comeback, and I think that versatility is part of why it runs a little above the model.
At this price
- Compare against 9.32
Fair odds for 2-1 at this rung are 9.32 from a 10.7% hit rate. If the quoted price is not clearly above that, the small edge over the model has been priced away.
- Respect the steady 1-0
1-0 was the most common score at 12.4%, fair odds 8.09, and held at 12.5% in the most recent era. It belongs in any correct score plan at this price.
- Go easy on routs
Home wins with four or more goals came in at 11.3% against a model 12.2%. At 1.50-1.59 the market leans too far towards the heavy win.
Questions bettors ask
How often does a home favourite at 1.50-1.59 win 2-1?
Across 7,221 matches, 2-1 landed 10.7% of the time, against 9.6% in a model built from margin-free prices. That works out at fair odds of 9.32.
What is the most common correct score when the home side is 1.50-1.59?
1-0 was the most frequent at 12.4%, with 2-0 next at 11.9% and 2-1 at 10.7%. 1-0 was also the top score in both top and lower divisions.
Does a 1.50-1.59 home side win 2-1 from behind at half-time?
Yes, it happens. In 1,120 games where the away side led at the break, the home team still won 2-1 in 9.6% of them.
Theodore Marsh — Correct Score is the market I keep returning to, mainly because the difference between a 1-0 and a 2-1 usually comes down to small tactical details most previews skip past.
View profile →
