Home Side Priced 2.00-2.39: How Often Does It End 1-1?

A home side at 2.00-2.39 is a favourite only on paper, and that is exactly the kind of match where I start thinking about 1-1. Across 40,274 matches in 22 European league divisions from 2005/06 to 2025/26, I wanted to know how often this rung actually ends at one apiece, and what a fair price for that scoreline looks like.

The headline answer is that 1-1 came in 13.9% of the time against 13.5% in the model, which gives fair odds of 7.21. That is slightly above what the prices implied, but it is close enough to be a reference figure rather than an edge. It is the number I check first on my daily correct score tips page whenever a home side is quoted in this band.

Rung 11-1 peaks in the middle of the home price ladder

This chart sets the model against the actual 1-1 rate at each home price rung, with the 95% range drawn around each result. The shape matters more than any single dot. At 1.60-1.79, 1-1 came in 11.6% against 12.0% in the model, and at 3.40-4.99 it fell to 12.2%. In the middle it climbs: 13.9% at our 2.00-2.39 rung and 14.2% at 2.40-2.79, where the model expected 13.7%, so the actual rate ran +0.5 points over it.

That fits how I read match flow. A short-priced favourite tends to keep pushing after an equaliser and turn 1-1 into 2-1. When the two sides are closely matched, a goal each often settles the game, because neither side is strong enough to impose a second wave.

For a bettor, the takeaway is that 1-1 is not a flat percentage you can apply to every match. It bends with the price, and the 2.00-2.39 band sits near the top of the curve.

Rung 2Nearly half of all draws at this rung finish 1-1

The table breaks down every draw score at home 2.00-2.39. Any draw landed 29.6% of the time against 28.7% in the model, and 1-1 accounted for 47.0% of those draws. Next came 0-0 at 9.0% (model 8.8%, fair odds 11.09), then 2-2 at 5.5% (model 5.3%, fair odds 18.06). Draws of 3-3 or higher made up 1.1% of games.

Every draw score ran level with or slightly above the model, and none of them ran below it. 1-1 shows the largest gap at +0.4 points, but that is a nudge, not a gulf.

Before going further, here is the one caveat that matters most. The model is a yardstick built from the 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices, not a quoted correct score price. Real correct score markets carry a heavier margin, and most of these gaps sit within normal variation, so a scoreline running slightly above the model is not, on its own, a profitable bet.

Rung 3Top flights held steady while lower divisions drifted down

The heatmap splits the 1-1 rate at this rung by division tier and era. In the top divisions it ran 13.8%, 13.7% and 14.3% across the three eras. In the lower divisions it ran 14.2%, 14.0% and 13.2%.

No tier owns the 1-1 here. The lower divisions led in the earlier eras, and the top divisions have edged ahead in the most recent one.

What I take from this is a mild caution about second-tier games in recent seasons. The 13.2% figure is the softest in the grid. That is not enough to rule the scoreline out, but it is enough that I would not pay a premium for it on reputation alone.

Rung 4Draw returns are least negative at 2.00-2.39

This chart shows the flat-stake return from backing the draw in every match at each rung, at the main price and at the best price available. At home 2.00-2.39 the draw returned −3.4% at the main price and +0.6% at the best. The neighbouring 2.40-2.79 rung came in at −3.9% and +0.1%. At the short end, 1.60-1.79 returned −8.4% and −3.5%.

The pattern matches the first chart. The draw holds up best where the home price sits in the middle of the ladder.

The gap between the main and best columns is the real lesson. The best-price figure assumes the top quote was taken on every single match, so treat +0.6% as an upper bound rather than an expected profit. It does show that the price you take matters as much as the outcome you pick.

Written byTheodore Marsh

Theodore Marsh — Correct Score is the market I keep returning to, mainly because the difference between a 1-0 and a 2-1 usually comes down to small tactical details most previews skip past.

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