Over 2.5 at 1.70–1.79: How Often Does Over 1.5 Goals Still Land?
At the 1.70–1.79 over 2.5 rung, the lower line of over 1.5 goals lands almost exactly as often as the prices suggest. Here is what that means before you back it.
Written by Felix DrummondGoal totals & Over/Under analyst
- 1.29Fair odds from the results
- 77.4%Over 1.5 goals implied by the prices
- 77.7%Over 1.5 goals actually
- 17,494Games on the rung (1.70–1.79)
- Market
- Over/Under
- The question
- When over 2.5 goals is priced 1.70 to 1.79, how often does the lower line of over 1.5 goals land, and what are its fair odds?
- Sample
- 22 European divisions (11 top flights, 11 lower divisions), 2005/06–2025/26, 155,870 matches with goal prices
Over 2.5 at 1.70–1.79 is one of the most common prices you'll see on a goal-friendly fixture. Plenty of bettors drop down a line to over 1.5 for comfort. I wanted to know whether that comfort is priced fairly, so I went through 17,494 matches on this rung across 22 European divisions from 2005/06 to 2025/26.
The short answer is that over 1.5 goals landed in 77.7% of those games, against 77.4% implied by the margin-free prices. Fair odds from the results are 1.29, the same as the price implies. If you came here from my goal line picks for today page, treat this as the reference sheet behind those reads: the market has this line about right, so any edge has to come from the match in front of you, not from the price rung.
Rung 1Over 1.5 tracks its price on every rung
The ladder sets the priced chance of over 1.5 against what actually happened, rung by rung. On our rung it's 77.4% priced and 77.7% actual. The 95% range of ±0.6 points takes in that small gap comfortably. The neighbours look the same: 79.5% against 79.9% one rung shorter, 75.4% against 75.5% one rung longer.
Only the shortest rung, 1.50–1.59, shows daylight, at 83.4% actual against 81.9% priced. Even that is a modest gap, and it sits away from the price this study is about.
View the data: over 1.5 goals: priced vs actual by rung
| Priced | Actual | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50–1.59 (9,019 games) | 81.9% | 83.4% | ±0.8 |
| 1.60–1.69 (14,102 games) | 79.5% | 79.9% | ±0.7 |
| 1.70–1.79 (17,494 games · this rung) | 77.4% | 77.7% | ±0.6 |
| 1.80–1.89 (20,158 games) | 75.4% | 75.5% | ±0.6 |
| 1.90–1.99 (22,805 games) | 73.4% | 73.2% | ±0.6 |
| 2.00–2.09 (21,518 games) | 71.5% | 71.6% | ±0.6 |
What I take from this is simple. Over 1.5 on this rung isn't a mispriced shortcut. You're paying close to the true rate, so the bookmaker's margin on the actual quote is what decides whether it's worth touching.
Rung 2One game in five finishes with fewer than two goals
This chart splits each rung by full-time total. At 1.70–1.79 the mix was 0–1 goals 22.3%, 2 goals 23.6%, 3 goals 22.6% and 4+ goals 31.5%. That 22.3% is your losing slice on over 1.5. It's large enough that a run of three or four blanks in a short spell is entirely ordinary.
Across the ladder, the low-scoring slice grows from 16.6% at 1.50–1.59 to 28.4% at 2.00–2.09. Meanwhile 4+ goals falls from 38.3% to 24.6%.
View the data: total-goal mix by over 2.5 price
| 0–1 goals | 2 goals | 3 goals | 4+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50–1.59 | 16.6% | 22.1% | 23.0% | 38.3% |
| 1.60–1.69 | 20.1% | 22.6% | 22.3% | 35.0% |
| 1.70–1.79 | 22.3% | 23.6% | 22.6% | 31.5% |
| 1.80–1.89 | 24.5% | 24.5% | 23.1% | 27.9% |
| 1.90–1.99 | 26.8% | 24.9% | 21.9% | 26.4% |
| 2.00–2.09 | 28.4% | 25.5% | 21.5% | 24.6% |
The 2-goal band is worth a second look. At 23.6% it's the outcome that wins over 1.5 but loses over 2.5. That is exactly why the two lines are priced so far apart on the same match.
Rung 3Recent seasons have run slightly above the price
Broken into three-season blocks, priced and actual sit very close for most of the period. Actual went from 76.7% in 05/06–07/08 to 79.4% in 23/24–25/26. The latest block, priced at 77.8%, came in at 79.4% across 2,833 games.
The prices have edged up over time as well, from 76.8% to 77.8%. The market has noticed the drift, but it hasn't fully caught up in the most recent block.
View the data: over 1.5 goals by era on this rung
| Priced | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 05/06–07/08 | 76.8% | 76.7% |
| 08/09–10/11 | 77.2% | 77.3% |
| 11/12–13/14 | 77.4% | 76.9% |
| 14/15–16/17 | 77.4% | 76.9% |
| 17/18–19/20 | 77.5% | 77.8% |
| 20/21–22/23 | 77.6% | 78.0% |
| 23/24–25/26 | 77.8% | 79.4% |
I wouldn't build anything on one era running hot. A smaller block carries a wider margin of error, and these gaps have closed before. The middle blocks at 76.9% actual sat a touch under their price.
Rung 4League tier and favourite barely move the rate
Inside the rung, top flights ran 78.0% against 77.6% priced, and lower divisions 77.3% against 77.3%. Home-favourite games were 77.8% against 77.4%, and away-favourite games 77.4% against 77.5%. Every one of those gaps sits inside its 95% range.
The half-time rows are where the picture changes for in-play bettors. After a 0-0 first half, over 1.5 landed in just 45.8% of games against 47.0% priced. After one goal at the break it was 80.3% against 79.5%.
| Split | Games | Priced | Actual | Gap | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top flights | 8,465 | 77.6% | 78.0% | +0.4 | ±0.9 |
| Lower divisions | 9,029 | 77.3% | 77.3% | 0.0 | ±0.9 |
| Home side favourite | 12,037 | 77.4% | 77.8% | +0.4 | ±0.7 |
| Away side favourite | 5,457 | 77.5% | 77.4% | −0.1 | ±1.1 |
| 0-0 at half-time | 4,908 | 47.0% | 45.8% | −1.2 | ±1.4 |
| One goal at half-time | 6,351 | 79.5% | 80.3% | +0.8 | ±1.0 |
| 2+ goals at half-time | 6,235 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0 | ±0.0 |
My one caveat applies here. The over 1.5 and half-time figures are derived from the over 2.5 price with a Poisson model, and real scores bunch on low totals a little more than that model allows. Part of that −1.2 gap after a goalless half is probably the model rather than the market, and none of these past rates is a staking plan.
At this price
- Price it at 1.29
Fair odds from the results are 1.29 on this rung, matching the implied price. If the quote you see is shorter than that, you're paying for comfort, not value.
- Expect regular blanks
0–1 goals happened in 22.3% of games here. Size stakes so a short run of low-scoring results doesn't push you into chasing.
- Respect a goalless half
After 0-0 at half-time, over 1.5 landed only 45.8% of the time. Don't assume the pre-match 77.7% still applies once the first half has been dry.
Questions bettors ask
How often does over 1.5 goals land when over 2.5 is 1.70–1.79?
In 77.7% of 17,494 matches across 22 European divisions. The margin-free prices implied 77.4%, so the line is priced about right.
What are fair odds for over 1.5 at this over 2.5 price?
Fair odds from the results are 1.29, the same as the implied price. Any quote shorter than that, once margin is included, means paying more than the historical rate justifies.
Is over 1.5 better value in top flights or lower divisions?
Neither stands out. Top flights ran 78.0% against 77.6% priced, and lower divisions 77.3% against 77.3%. Both gaps are inside their 95% range of ±0.9 points.
I'm Felix Drummond, and I write about Over/Under markets because that's where I've spent three years stress-testing my own assumptions about how matches actually score.
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