Home Sides Priced 1.50-1.59: BTTS Yes Rate League by League

When the home side is priced 1.50-1.59, the market expects a home win but not a rout. That is exactly the price where BTTS feels like a coin toss. I wanted to see whether that instinct holds in every league or only on average across them all.

Across 7,221 matches in 22 European divisions from 2005/06 to 2025/26, both teams scored in 50.1%, against 48.9% implied by the prices. That gives fair odds of 2.00 either way, so on the headline this rung is priced about right. The league split is where it gets interesting, and it is the first thing I check before any selection reaches my BTTS yes predictions page.

Rung 1League choice moves BTTS far more than price

This table holds the home price steady at 1.50-1.59 and lets the league vary. The spread is wide: Bundesliga tops it at 56.6% over 334 games, while Super League Greece sits at 36.8% over 266. That is a big gulf between matches carrying the same home price.

The more useful column is the gap to the implied rate. Ligue 1 at +6.8 and Serie A at +5.3 ran well above what the prices suggested, while Greece at −4.2 and the Championship at −2.3 fell short. Bundesliga was high, but its price already expected that, so its gap is a modest +2.4.

One caveat runs through the whole study. The goals model behind the implied rates treats each side's scoring as independent, and across all 155,895 priced matches it ran 1.2 points below the actual BTTS rate. So I judge any gap against that baseline, and I remember that league rows as small as 266 games carry ranges of about ±5.8 points.

Rung 2The gap to the price barely moves up the ladder

Here every home price band is set against its implied BTTS rate. Each rung from 1.20-1.29 to 1.80-1.89 sits on the positive side, from 0.5 at the shortest band to +2.2 at both 1.30-1.39 and 1.60-1.69. Our rung shows +1.2, the same as the all-match baseline.

The neighbours tell the same story. At 1.40-1.49, BTTS hit 49.8% against 48.5% implied over 4,864 games; at 1.60-1.69 it hit 51.8% against 49.6% over 7,939. The raw BTTS rate does climb as the home price drifts, from 46.0% at the shortest band, but the price tracks that climb closely.

What I take from this: at 1.50-1.59 there is nothing special in the price itself. Any edge I chase has to come from the match, not from the band.

Rung 3The away goal decides almost every BTTS bet here

Splitting BTTS into its two legs makes the job clearer. The home side scored in 85.9% of matches against 84.9% implied, so that leg is rarely the problem. The away side scored in 58.2% against 57.5% implied, which means it drew a blank in 41.8% of games.

That makes the away leg the real question. Its fair price to score is 1.72, and almost all of my preparation at this rung goes into that one leg: how the visitors build from the back, whether their forwards are fresh, and how the home defence copes when it pushes on.

Rung 4Home clean sheets head the scoreline chart

The most common results were 1-0 at 12.4% and 2-0 at 11.9%, both of them home wins to nil. The leading BTTS score was 2-1 at 10.7%, with 1-1 close behind at 10.3%.

The pattern fits the each-side chart. The home team usually scores, and the bet turns on whether the visitors find one reply. A 3-0 at 7% and a 0-0 at 6% are reminders that the losing BTTS outcomes come in more than one shape.

For me, this rung is a match-by-match call rather than a price-led one. I would not treat 2.00 as a target to beat without a specific reason to rate the away attack.

Written byMarcus Campbell

I'm Marcus Campbell, a football betting writer specialising in BTTS markets, where I dig into the patterns behind both teams finding the net.

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